Coronavirus and Avian Flu Tidbits #297, June 2, 2024

Covid cases continue to rise each week in US. "So far this year, nearly 3.3 million COVID cases have been reported in the U.S., causing 283,605 hospitalizations and 29,370 deaths."

https://x.com/BNOFeed/status/1795195453627048409

Surges in Covid also in Egypt, Singapore, and Australia. The latter is telling people to mask up.

But we're flying blind in the US with the CDC no longer tracking/reporting data.

Hawaii still keeps data, and can see/predict from their current surge.

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https://twitter.com/maolesen/status/1794551586435530802

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Long Covid: 3 yr followup from @Zalaly, Miao Cai, @Biostayan, @EricTopol

Among people who had mild COVID-19 , risk of death became insignificant 1 year after infection Risk of new post acute sequelae declined over time, but residual risk remained even at 3 years in the pulmonary, GI and nervous systems.

This residual risk in the third year translates into 41 new sequelae/Long Covid components per 1000 persons in the third year (4 sequelae per 100 people).

In hospitalized patients, Risk of death declined over time, but remained elevated even 3 years after infection. Risk of new post acute sequelae declined over time, but significant risk remained even at 3 years in nearly all organ systems - cardiovascular, neurologic, GI, coagulation and pulmonary organ systems

This risk in the third year translates into 252 new sequelae/Long Covid components per 1000 persons in the third year (~ 25 sequelae per 100 people)

New conditions in the third year after infection led to 10 DALYs per 1000 persons in non-hospitalized , and 90 DALYs per 1000 persons in those who were hospitalized during acute COVID One DALY equals one lost year of healthy life.

The big revelation here is that the risk persists for 3 years in several organ systems (e.g. GI and nervous system) even 3 years after a mild infection.

Why is this be happening? Possibly viral persistence (perhaps far more common than most people think), chronic inflammation or chronic immune dysfunction or all the above.

The story in hospitalized people is more stark – they have greater risk and longer risk horizon with resultant burden of disease that is astronomically much higher than non-infected people and higher than non-hospitalized individuals. Hospitalization can have huge and wide-ranging effects on people's lives for years if not more. Preventing hospitalization is very important.

In fact, 90% of people with Long Covid had mild COVID-19.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-02987-8

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Long Covid and autoimmunity:

Preprint on how antibodies could drive #LongCOVID symptoms. By transferring IgG #antibodies from Long COVID patients to mice, we induced disease-associated symptoms. This model can help in understanding and treating Long COVID.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.05.30.596590v1

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Avian influenza H5N1:

Third dairy farm worker infected with H5 avian flu 

unlike the earlier cases, the patient is experiencing respiratory symptoms as well as conjunctivitis. Michigan has been hit hardest by the dairy farm outbreaks and has reported 22 outbreaks across 10 of the state's counties. Neither worker exposed to sick cows was wearing PPE. They were treated with Tamiflu.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/second-dairy-farm-worker-infected-h5-avian-flu-michigan

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Vaccines are being readied...

CSL Seqirus will deliver 4.8 million vaccine doses that are matched to the current H5N1 strain of the virus. They would likely be targeted initially to protect at-risk poultry and dairy workers, veterinarians and lab technicians,

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/csl-seqirus-scores-4th-award-us-government-bird-flu-pandemic-preparedness

The U.S. government is reportedly close to finalizing a deal with Moderna to fund its bird flu mRNA vaccine trial as concerns remain surrounding the outbreak in poultry and cattle.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/4693878-us-government-moderna-nearing-deal-for-bird-flu-vaccine-funding-reports/

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Dengue is surging:

in 2024 so far, more than 7.6 million cases have been reported, which includes 16,000 severe infections and more than 3,000 deaths, the World Health Organization (WHO) said today.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/dengue/who-launches-dengue-dashboard-global-threat-remains-high

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Pertussis

The resurgence of vaccine preventable diseases in US is truly alarming. This will cause kids to miss school, drain public health resources (and tax dollars), and eventually cost lives.  Kentucky county declares pertussis outbreak

--  @JeromeAdamsMD

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Oregon health officials are concerned about a sharp increase in cases of pertussis – known as whooping cough – across nine counties and are encouraging people to get vaccinated against the disease.