Coronavirus Tidbits #314, September 29, 2024

Mike Hoerger: 9/23 Expect about 29 million infections in the U.S. over the next month if the model holds.

In a classroom of 30-35 people, there's about a 50% chance at least one person is infectious if weak/no isolation policies.

Transmission is higher than during 80% of the pandemic.

1.1 million daily COVID infections; 1 in 45 actively infectious

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BNO News: Deaths remain >1000 per week for the 6th week in a row.

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JP Weiland, 9/27: Transmission rates cratering after a high summer surge

590,000 new infections/day; 1 in every 57 people currently infected

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Progress on nasal vaccines:

Two doses of a Covid nasal vaccine spray led to >50-fold increase in spike-specific secretory IgA antibodies against 10 strains of #SARSCoV2, indicative of potent mucosal immunity https://insight.jci.org/articles/view/180784…with evidence of blocking infections among health care workers who were assessed after exposure

"At least 86.2% participants who completed 2 [nasal vaccine] doses maintained uninfected status, likely without even asymptomatic infection, for at least 3 months."

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On Covid reinfections adn Long Covid: It's not just a cold!

Such evidence “dispels the myth that repeated brushes with the virus are mild and you don’t have to worry about it,” he added, noting that “it is akin to playing Russian roulette.”

That is why “you want to try to avoid reinfection if possible. ​"

https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/what-doctors-wish-patients-knew-about-covid-19-reinfection

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“Those who had 2 COVID infections were 2.14 times more likely, and those who had 3 or more COVID infections were 3.75 times more likely to report Long COVID than those with one infection.”

reinfections were associated with increased likelihood of severe fatigue, post-exertional malaise, decreased physical function, poorer immune health, symptom exacerbation before menstruation, and multiple other Long COVID symptoms. While vaccinations and boosters prior to infection are associated with lower likelihood of Long COVID, reinfections diminish their protective effect.

From the Patient-Led Research Collaborative,

https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-4909082/v1

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and in a VA Study: each additional COVID infection increased the cumulative risk and burden of new chronic diseases (diabetes, heart disease, etc.), Long COVID and death

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-02051-3

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Memory Loss following mild Covid:

With mild infection in healthy participants who received a #SARSCoV2 challenge there was evidence of persistent cognitive and memory changes at least one year after Covid, compared with uninfected controls - via Eric Topol https://thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(24)00421-8/fulltext…

[This challenge study strikes me (and did at the time) as highly unethical].

Mike Hoerger has criticisms of the study's interpretation here.

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The brain injury 1 year post-Covid hospitalization, systematically assessed with MRI (reduced grey matter), biomarkers, and cognitive deficits "equivalent in magnitude to aging from 50 to 70 years of age." Findings in 351 cases and 2,297 matched controls point to immune-mediated basis https://nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03309-8…

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Pediatric Covid:

Covid-related hospitalization rates among infants aged <6 months remain higher than those among any other age group except adults aged ≥75 years and were comparable to hospitalization rates in adults aged 65–74 years. Of 1000 infants, 22% were admitted to an intensive care unit, and nine died. Maternal vaccination during pregnancy has been shown to be safe and effective in protecting young infants too young to receive vax (through transplacental transfer of antibodies).

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7338a1.htm

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On Immunity...

In summary, this study shows that for some reason, vaccination against Spike with mRNA vaccine (even combined with infection) fails to establish long lived plasma cells that provide IgG against the virus long term. (6/)...

But we can do better....For example, nasal boosters given every few months may be able to maintain protective IgA in the nose and throat. Self-administration can make this easier. We need out of the box thinking to combat respiratory viruses like COVID and to prevent infection, transmission & #longCOVID

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Further discussion in thread by Edward Nirenberg: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1839785880875089935.html…

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Covid Viral shedding:

On Back to Office:

As @JohnQuiggin writes, the biggest reason to force us back to the office is to get a bunch of us to quit: https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/26/in-their-plaintive-call-for-a-return-to-the-office-ceos-reveal-how-little-they-are-needed…

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"A recent Stanford study found that remote or hybrid workers are just as productive, more content, and less likely to quit. A review of evidence in The Economist concurs. When remote work hurts productivity, it’s because companies don’t give their employees the resources they need, and in some cases they put obstacles in their way. They want it to fail.

Many news outlets finally came clean last year and reported that a big chunk of companies might simply be using office return mandates as an excuse to lay off employees and “restructure” their workforce.

So, what's really going on?

It’s about real estate.

There's an office real estate apocalypse unfolding. Corporate landlords currently hold $1.2 trillion in loans on office towers all over the country. In some cases, these are the same jerks who've been buying up all the houses and driving up prices on residential real estate, too. When the pandemic hit, these landlords did something even dumber. As The Financial Times states, they took advantage of “nearly free money” from the Federal Reserve to buy up “trophy office buildings.” Now that everyone is embracing remote work, they can’t lease that office space to anyone. They have a bunch of zombie office towers. They can’t do anything with them...

Anywhere from 12 to 20 percent of office space remains vacant. It’s worse than the 2008 recession...."

Jessica Wildfire: https://www.the-sentinel-intelligence.com/p/heres-why-they-want-you-back-at-the-office-so-bad

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Other:

Avian Flu:

mPox:

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Marburg Virus:

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9/28: Update on 1st #Marburg outbreak in #Rwanda: - 26 cases, 6 deaths—likely undetected for a while. - First-ever reported cases in Rwanda. - Cases centered in/around #Kigali (pop. 1.2M), raising spread concerns due to intl. flights. - Reported Health worker deaths highlight urgent need for better protection. - No approved treatments or vaccines yet, but mAbs & vaccines in development.

More at afro.who.int/countries/rwanda/news/rwanda-reports-first-ever-marburg-virus-disease-outbreak-26-cases-confirmed

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Diabetes

Stem cells reverse woman’s diabetes — a world first

She is the first person with type 1 diabetes to receive this kind of transplant.

Nature  By Smriti Mallapaty  26 September 2024

A 25-year-old woman with type 1 diabetes started producing her own insulin less than three months after receiving a transplant of reprogrammed stem cells¹. She is the first person with the disease to be treated using cells that were extracted from her own body.

It has been more than a year since the transplant, and, she says, “I enjoy eating everything."

“They’ve completely reversed diabetes in the patient, who was requiring substantial amounts of insulin beforehand.”

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03129-3

also First person to receive her own stem cells, reprogrammed with transcription factors, to reverse it! @CellCellPress https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867424010225?via%3Dihub…