Coronavirus Tidbits #309 August 25, 2024

PMC COVID-19 Forecasting Model, August 19, 2024

We're at 1.3 million infections/day in the U.S. This is the highest known transmission during back-to-school season all-time. An estimated 1 in 24 people in the West region are actively infectious. pic.twitter.com/zyLbtmMIF9

— Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA (@michael_hoerger) August 19, 2024

Based on the PMC Model, my best estimate is that Americans are 10.7 times more likely to get infected with COVID today (red line) relative to August 22, 2020 (purple line).

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CDC data

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With 1 million cases/week and  “1,134 new COVID deaths were reported during the week [of August 18], the Dems declaration that the pandemic is over appears to have been premature.

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The KP.3.1.1 variant appears to be more infectious and is triggering some of this upswing, on top of waning immunity.

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FDA approves new mRNA Covid vaccines from Pfizer & Moderna

Appears to be slow-walking Novavax; unclear why.

Novavax hopes to have approval in early September. The company just issued a statement that the FDA has requested “additional information.” [Why now, rather than in June, when Novavax filed for approval?]

What should you do? IMHO, if you are interacting with the public regularly and/or have more risk of infection, then it makes sense to get it now, since infections are so high.

If you are more a recluse, like I am, I would wait. Novavax has some advantages and is longer lasting.

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Novavax details:

Novavax was shown to have a better neutralizing response against the currently dominant KP.3.1.1 variant than it did against KP.2, KP.2 sublineages, and KP.3.

Protection against KP.3.1.1 is really good, second best after JN.1 itself.

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Covid and Mental Illness

In this cohort study, depression, serious mental illness, general anxiety, posttraumatic stress disorder, eating disorders, addiction, self-harm, and suicide were elevated during weeks 1 through 4 after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with before or without COVID-19. Incidence was lower in people who were vaccinated when they had COVID-19 and incidence was higher, and persisted longer, after hospitalization for COVID-19.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapsychiatry/fullarticle/2822342

And the research also found that people who caught a severe dose of Covid-19 but weren’t vaccinated, were more likely to suffer mental illness, and a more serious case of mental illness, than those who were vaccinated beforehand.

This elevation in the incidence of mental illnesses, was mainly seen after severe Covid that led to hospitalisation and remained higher for up to a year following severe Covid in unvaccinated people.

https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/health/bristol-university-researchers-find-severe-9499044

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How Covid Rewires Our Brains:

University of Colorado Boulder scientists have discovered that proteins left by COVID-19 can significantly lower cortisol levels in the brain, leading to heightened immune responses to new stressors.

https://scitechdaily.com/the-invisible-damage-how-covid-rewires-our-brains/

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Democratic (DNC) Convention - A Needlessly Stupid Superspreader event

‘COVID no longer controls our lives,’ declared outgoing President Joe Biden [to the DNC]...Now attendees are, unsurprisingly, reporting illness. [Why were organizers and attendees so stupid?]

And why was CNN's Erin Burnett gaslighting the country: “4 years ago, this would’ve been a superspreader event. It feels really good to breathe air and see everyone’s smiling faces.”

An estimated 3% of attendees had Covid acutely.

Another great post from Julia Doubleday:

https://www.thegauntlet.news/p/the-planet-the-democrats-live-on

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Mask Bans

Last week I told you Nassau County banned wearing masks in public, with a $1000 fine and up to a year in prison. Disability Rights (DRNY) has filed a Class Action Lawsuit, Preliminary Injunction and a Temporary Restraining Order.

Now U of California has banned masks used to “conceal identity” in response to pro-Palestinian protests.

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Loss of smell tied to brain changes

A new study of 73 adults recovering from COVID-19 finds that those who lost their sense of smell showed behavioral, functional, and structural brain changes.

30.1% reported having differing degrees of attention and memory problems. Seven patients said they had headaches, six reported fatigue, and four had a persistently impaired sense of smell lasting, on average, 1.3 months

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19/covid-related-loss-smell-tied-changes-brain

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Covid in Kids

Big paper “Post–COVID-19 Condition in Children,” in JAMA Pediatrics 2023 said that the incidence of PCC was 0.4% (1/271). Authors have just retracted their paper saying that they found "coding errors" and that when those errors were corrected, the incidence of PCC was 1.4% (4/286). [Why wasn't this picked up in peer review process?]

Blake Murdoch and others said the study is invalid anyway for using improper definitions and other reasons, as we describe here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/article-abstract/2814314…

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2809315…

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Long Covid in Kids and Teens - NIH

Researchers identified 18 prolonged symptoms that were more common in school-age children, including headache (57%), followed by trouble with memory or focusing (44%), trouble sleeping (44%), and stomach pain (43%). Other common symptoms in school-age children not included in the research index included body, muscle, and joint pain; daytime tiredness/sleepiness or low energy; and feeling anxious.

In adolescents, 17 symptoms were more common, including daytime tiredness/sleepiness or low energy (80%); body, muscle, or joint pain (60%); headaches (55%); and trouble with memory or focusing (47%). Feeling anxious and trouble sleeping were other commonly reported symptoms that were not included in the research index.

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-funded-study-finds-long-covid-affects-adolescents-differently-younger-children

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Avian flu:

Marked drop in reports/news this week.

Small trial on native birds is part of preparations for arrival of deadly strain of H5N1 avian flu, which has not yet been reported in New Zealand. Unfortunately, the birds each have to be captured twice.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/22/new-zealand-endangered-birds-vaccination-h5n1-avian-bird-flu-virus

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Mpox

Infographic from Ruth Ann Crystal:

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Eastern Equine Encephalitis 

Ten communities in Massachusetts have been raised to high or critical risk of Eastern Equine Encephalitis (EEE) -- a "rare but serious and potentially fatal disease" spread to humans through infected mosquitos -- virus by DPH as of Sunday, the departments stated.

6 pm curfew on outdoor activities in one town until October after a man tested + for eastern equine encephalitis(EEE). The mosquito-borne illness can lead to brain swelling, seizures, etc, has a 30% fatality rate & few recover without serious sequelae. No treatment exists

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West Nile

Dr. Fauci released from hospital after illness d/t West Nile.

Since there is no active surveillance/data about it, one wonders what prompted his being tested for it.